AKP Phnom Penh, June 12, 2025 --

International rice prices remain near three-year lows as the world’s crop prepares to hit a new all-time high this season, the Food and Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) said Thursday.

"Much will depend on growing conditions during the critical northern hemisphere’s summer months,” the FAO said in its biannual Food Outlook.

The UN agency forecast world rice production at 551.5 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season — up 0.9 percent from the 2024/25 crop.

PRODUCTION INCREASES IN ASIA

“Much of the forecast expansion rests on expectations of additional production increases in Asia,” it said.

“Barring major setbacks, positive outcomes are also anticipated in Africa, Europe, and Latin America and the Caribbean.”

Global rice utilisation is tentatively forecast to grow by 1.7 percent to a record 549.1 million tonnes, underpinned by anticipated increases in food and non-food industrial uses.

Global rice stockpiles are expected to reach 209.5 million tonnes at the end of the current marketing season — up 0.6 percent from their already record-high opening level.

“In India, efforts to free up room in public granaries could lower carryovers in 2025/26.

“However, this decline, coupled with a few other anticipated drawdowns, could be more than compensated by stock build-ups elsewhere, particularly in China,” the FAO said.

International rice trade is meanwhile forecast to expand 1.4 percent to a record 60.5 million tonnes in calendar 2025.

“Import cuts by Asian countries could be offset by strong demand from all other regions, particularly Africa,” the agency said.

CAMBODIAN EXPORTS FORECAST TO CONTRACT

“Among exporters, India is forecast to register the largest export expansion, with shipments from Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay also expected to recover.

"Conversely, exports by Cambodia, Myanmar, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States of America, and Viet Nam are forecast to contract."

The FAO noted that world prices fell steadily between September last year and March this year, depressed by abundant harvests in exporting countries, the repeal of export restrictions in India, and a slowdown in import demand.

Prices have since shown "some signs of recovery” but the FAO’s Rice Price Index remained 22.6 percent below its year-earlier level in May were close to three-year lows, the agency said.

By Sao Da